When François Legault cruised to his second term as Quebec Premier last year, it looked like he had changed Québec politics forever. In just eleven years of its existence, Legault’s nationalist Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) had risen from insignificance to becoming the province’s most popular party. On top of that, every party that wasn’t the CAQ was struggling: The Liberal’s campaign was disastrous, Solidaire failed to gather its support, the Conservatives could not win a seat, and the Parti Québecois had been completely decimated. But after a year of blunders, their stranglehold over Québec is in a precarious position.

During the 2022 election, one of the most polarizing issues in Québec was the construction of the Troisième Lien—a proposed tunnel connecting Québec City to Lévis, the city across the Saint Laurence River—to alleviate traffic. While the CAQ had already promised to build the tunnel four years earlier, its construction had never started, and the project was dragged back into the campaign spotlight. Legault in turn doubled down on the promise: the tunnel was going to be built.

In April 2023, Legault’s government finally revealed the results of studies conducted on the tunnel, which showed that the tunnel would not fix any of Québec City’s traffic problems. Caught in a Catch-22, the government announced the tunnel would solely be for public transportation and not for cars. People, especially in Québec City, were outraged that the government had flipflopped on such a contentious issue, and the CAQ began to suffer in the polls.

In July, a Québec City CAQ politician resigned, prompting a by-election. While the CAQ had easily won the seat last election, things were different now. The seat was now a tight race between the CAQ and the Parti Québecois (PQ). In many ways, the election was a mini referendum on Legault’s performance: A Parti Québecois victory would signal that people were unhappy with his government. 

On election night, the PQ blew out the CAQ and won the seat. Legault’s response was to flip flop again and say that they would maybe make the tunnel for cars and public transportation, losing more credibility with the public.

Today, the Parti Québecois has exploded in popularity and are polling higher than the CAQ. Legault has continued to make unforced errors, like his announcement that the government would pay five million dollars for the LA Kings to play preseason games in Québec City, which was derided as a waste of money. Meanwhile, his government is staring down a massive strike, causing him to bleed even more support. The next election is not until 2026, and three years is a long time in politics—Legault has plenty of time to fix his errors. His mistakes serve as a reminder of how easy it is to kill goodwill in politics, and that today’s political juggernaut can easily become next year’s biggest loser.